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Global oil prices surged above $90 a barrel on Friday as more Middle Eastern crude production headed for a shutdown and investors braced for a protracted conflict in the Gulf.
US President Donald Trump warned that there would be “no deal” with Iran unless the country offered its “unconditional surrender”, while Qatar’s energy minister predicted oil would hit $150 a barrel without a quick end to the war.
One Middle Eastern oil benchmark has already climbed above $100 a barrel as refineries race to snap up cargoes that do not need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that ships 20 per cent of the world’s crude and remains in effect blockaded by the conflict.
Arne Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, said the market had underestimated the likely duration of the war, adding that there was a “snowball effect” as traders woke up to the risks.
Iraq has already shut down most of its oil production, with Kuwait expected to follow in the coming days as the countries’ storage facilities approach capacity. Analysts have warned that even Saudi Arabia, the Gulf’s top producer, could be forced to lower output in the coming weeks.
Brent crude was nearly 7 per cent higher at $91.35 a barrel on Friday afternoon in London, up from $72 before the conflict.
Murban, an oil benchmark based on cargoes loaded at the UAE port of Fujairah on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz, has soared to a premium over other crudes this week. It climbed to $100.25 a barrel on Friday.
US benchmark WTI was up more than 10 per cent at $89.30 a barrel.
Analysts said the narrowing of the gap between WTI and Brent further highlighted the clamour for US barrels that are cheaper and safer to purchase, despite a sharp jump in freight rates during the crisis.
“If you get a tanker to the United States, you have got some pretty cheap barrels over there compared to the international benchmark,” said Robert Yawger, a commodity specialist at Mizuho Securities. “You don’t have to worry about delivery, you don’t have to worry about your tanker getting struck by a cruise missile.”
Amrita Sen, founder of consultancy Energy Aspects, said traders had been betting that the conflict would end “imminently”, explaining why oil’s initial surge earlier this week was more modest than many had anticipated. Sen added that traders were also “jaded” after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine produced only a shortlived spike in the oil price to as much as $128 a barrel.
“This time is different because at a bare minimum 10mn barrels per day are affected,” she said.
Some market participants now foresee a return to triple-digit oil prices.
“The longer this goes, I think the more likely that will be,” said a senior executive at a big energy company. “I think it’s not just more likely, it’s inevitable.”
