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Oil and gas prices surged and global stocks fell on Monday as the widening conflict in the Middle East disrupted energy supplies from the region and threatened to hit the global economy.
In the first trading session since the US and Israel launched air strikes against Iran on Saturday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, soared as much as 13 per cent. European gas prices jumped 24 per cent.
Gold rose and global stocks fell, with the Stoxx Europe 600, Europe’s benchmark index, down 1.8 per cent, led by declines in airlines and hotel groups.
Activity in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows, has slowed to a near standstill following the strikes.
Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on its Gulf neighbours also threaten regional infrastructure critical to the global energy market. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates produce roughly a fifth of global liquefied natural gas, and typically export to Asia and Europe through the Strait.
“The implications of this conflict for the world economy depend on the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Norbert Rücker, head of economics at Julius Baer. “The most feared scenario is not its closure, but serious damage to the region’s key oil and gas infrastructure.”
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said a significant amount of crude already outside the Gulf could ease tightness in the oil market.
Martijn Rats, an analyst at the bank, said Saudia Arabia and the UAE had raised exports by an additional 1.5mn barrels a day so far this year, and calculated that Saudi Arabia could sustainably pipe 7mn b/d to its terminal on the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. China had also stockpiled close to 1mn b/d of crude over the past six months to weather any disruption.
Futures tracking the S&P 500 indicated the index would drop 1.6 per cent when Wall Street opens. Those tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq index were down 1.9 per cent.
In European markets, International Airlines Group, the owner of British Airways, was down 10 per cent, while Air France-KLM dropped 7 per cent. French hotel chain Accor weakened 8.5 per cent.
Gold was up 1.6 per cent to $5,362 a troy ounce, as investors sought haven assets, while the dollar rose 0.6 per cent against a basket of its key trading partners.
Brent crude gave up some of its earlier gains to trade up 8 per cent in London.
Stock markets across Asia declined on Monday with Japan’s Topix and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 1.5 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively.
