Michael Clarke, Visiting Professor at King’s College London, gives his expert verdict on the direction of travel for war in the Middle East as the deadly conflict rages on
Donald Trump is in thrall to the awesome destructive power of the US military under his command.
So much in thrall, he doesn’t know what to do with it. The war he began two weeks ago is spinning out of control. It seemed to surprise only him and the circle of amateurs around him – not those who know anything about Iran – that Tehran was serious when it said the Iranian regime would set the region on fire if it was attacked.
They said it, and now they’re doing it. So the rest of the world has a massive problem. Tehran is losing its military power by the day under US and Israeli attacks, but it has a clear political strategy.
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The US is increasing its military power across the region by the day, yet has no political strategy to convert it into a meaningful win. Tehran makes the war painful for everyone else. It closes the Straits of Hormuz, attacks energy production wherever it can, disrupts air travel, international banking, and launches cyber-attacks everywhere.
And the regime simply shoots any ‘dissenters’ – the vast majority of the population are thought not to support it – who venture out to protest. If the whole ‘Islamic revolution’ does collapse in a few weeks’ time, it will undoubtedly try to take the region with it.
Saddam Hussein tried it in Iraq in 1991; Colonel Gaddafi tried it in Libya in 2011. The Mullahs in Tehran have a lot more going for them if they try the same in 2026. Meanwhile, President Trump seems to set out different reasons every day for launching this war.
And the Pentagon is beginning to get desperate. It can keep on smashing Iran from the air, but it cannot open the Straits of Hormuz to international shipping unless it’s prepared to get low down and dirty and go in and fight for them.
It may now be considering that by bringing the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit – 2,500, or potentially more, US marines – into the war zone. The Israelis will continue their war against Hezbollah in Lebanon whatever happens.
The western countries can do little except try to protect their own interests, and their friends, as the roller-coaster plunges on. At some point, Trump will ‘declare victory and leave’.
But that won’t stop all the fighting and the rest of the world will be left to sort out the mess his toy-soldier fixation has created.
