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Turkey’s top diplomat said both the US and Iran appeared ready to compromise to secure a nuclear deal, but warned that broadening talks to cover Tehran’s ballistic missile programme would risk “nothing but another war”.
Hakan Fidan, who has played an integral role in mediation efforts to avert a conflict, told the FT that Washington had signalled a willingness to be flexible on a key demand that Iran end all uranium enrichment. That condition has long been a critical barrier to a deal, as Iran insists it has a right to enrich as a signatory to the non-proliferation treaty.
The Turkish foreign minister also said he believed Tehran “genuinely wants to reach a real agreement” and would accept restrictions on enrichment levels and a strict inspections regime, like it did in the 2015 agreement with the US and other world powers.
“It is positive that the Americans appear willing to tolerate Iranian enrichment within clearly set boundaries,” said Fidan, who is in constant contact with US, Iranian and regional officials. “The Iranians now recognise that they need to reach a deal with the Americans, and the Americans understand that the Iranians have certain limits. It’s pointless to try to force them.”
He cautioned that if the US “insists on addressing all the issues simultaneously” — a reference to Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and support for regional militant groups — “I’m afraid even the nuclear file will not move forward . . . the result could be another war in the region”.
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held indirect talks with Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat last week after Turkey, Qatar, Oman and Egypt intensified efforts to get the adversaries to the negotiating table.
Both Washington and Tehran described the talks — the first since the US joined Israel’s 12-day war against Iran in June to bomb the Islamic republic’s nuclear facilities — as a positive first step. They said they expected to hold another round soon, although diplomats warn that brokering a deal faces huge challenges.
The talks were initially planned for Istanbul with regional powers attending as observers. But Tehran pushed for them to be held in Oman as it insisted the discussions focus solely on the nuclear programme.
US President Donald Trump’s messaging on the scope of a potential deal has been mixed. Washington had insisted that Iran accept curbs on its missile programme and end support to its proxies, such as Lebanon’s Hizbollah and Houthi rebels in Yemen. But after last week’s talks, which Trump described as “very good”, the president said a deal that only covered Iran’s nuclear programme could be “acceptable”.
After hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Wednesday, Trump said he insisted that “negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not a Deal can be consummated”.
“If it cannot, we will just have to see what the outcome will be,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. The meeting came amid reports that the US could send a second aircraft carrier to the region.
Fidan said Ankara and other governments in the region were “trying to develop creative ideas” to tackle Iran’s ballistic missile programme and support for militants, adding they could play a “constructive and effective role”.
“The Americans are deeply concerned about Iran’s nuclear capabilities,” he said. “However, the other issues are closely tied to countries of the region, because missiles and proxies affect regional security; they do not have a global reach.”
Fidan said he was concerned Netanyahu would seek to influence Trump during his White House visit.
“For Israel, maintaining a position of military superiority in the region is a central priority,” he said. “The presence of Iranian missiles complicates that objective.”
Israel has increasingly warned about the threat posed by the republic’s missile arsenal and pushed aggressively for it to be part of any negotiations. Iran says its missile programme is not up for discussion.
Fidan stressed that the Trump administration and Iran should avoid the mistakes of the past when regional states felt excluded from negotiations that led to world powers signing the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran.
Under that accord, Iran’s enrichment was restricted to 3.67 per cent purity, while its stockpile of enriched uranium was limited to 300kg. But the agreement did not address other issues, which some regional states say left Tehran able to build up its missile programme and bolster its proxies.
“It will be important for Iran to pair any agreement with the US with steps that strengthen confidence with regional partners . . . that balance is essential,” Fidan said. “There is a significant trust gap with regional countries, and addressing that dimension is essential.”
Fidan said Tehran was aware of the peril it faced in the wake of Israel’s devastating war last year, as well as mass anti-regime protests last month that were the most violent and deadly since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Trump has deployed what he described as an “armada” of US warships in the region as he has weighed military options against the republic in the wake of the protests.
“They [Iran’s leaders] understand that the public unrest was driven largely by economic difficulties,” he said. “So they know that the sanctions issue needs to be resolved.”
He also cautioned that US strikes would be unlikely to trigger the collapse of the regime.
“I don’t think that regime change will occur,” Fidan said. “Of course, the government organs and some other targets would be badly hit and damaged, destroyed. But the regime as a political entity would be a functioning entity.”
