US President Donald Trump could give attack order on Iran as nuclear and ballistic missile demands of regime are unnacceptable to Tehran with fears of rogue Iranian officers sparking war
The shooting down of an Iranian drone by the US carrier fleet gathered in the Arabian Sea is likely the beginning of a ramping up of tensions in the region.
Semi-autonomous Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers going rogue are a huge danger as US-hating zealots and could escalate independently of the regime. And military conflict ranging from a brief missile exchange to all-out war could still break out as negotiations look unlikely to be resolved.
An attack by American forces, largely by the USS Abraham Lincoln strike force parked 500 miles off Iran, could be launched – but Israel also has a vote in all of this.
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Even if the US backs down, or maintains a kind of maritime blockade, sources suggest Israel is ‘highly likely’ to take more military action against Iran. In Washington US President Donald Trump has been examining restricted strikes aimed just beneath the threshold for war and decisive and devastating strikes taking apart Tehran’s regime.
Sadly it is possible the welfare of protesters, more than 7,000 of whom have in recent weeks are known to have been killed, will become a side-show in the coming days and weeks. The issue has become muddied by Trump’s warning to the regime that “help” for the opposition was “on the way” weeks ago – followed up by threats against Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Estimates suggest at least another 10,000 protesters have also died but this has been impossible to verify. The US is demanding no nuclear enrichment on Iranian soil, the removal of all enriched Uranium and large restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile programme.
Never mind spreading the 1979 revolution, the missile programme is seen as protecting what is left of it and is viewed as crucial for securing Iran’s sovereignty. So there is little or no room for manoeuvre for either side and Iran’s regime is cornered, the huge influence it held before the Gaza War disappearing before its eyes.
The regime is now facing existential oblivion, disliked and not trusted by influential Middle Eastern countries such Saudi Arabia and Qatar – and its own people alike. Tehran was severely wounded by the arrest of toppled Venezuelan leader Nicola Maduro as its Hezbollah proxy force enjoyed huge influence in the country.
It had become their centre of operations in South America, a place where they could money-launder at will and see operatives disappear with clean, new identities. This was the latest in a string of blows Iran has suffered since the Gaza War broke out, including the dismantling of Hamas and degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Sources suggest sporadic demonstrations, though hugely decreased by a bloody regime clampdown, are still ongoing within the country. And the regime, hampered by an aggressive IRGC leadership that is still devoted to protecting and spreading the so-called Islamic revolution, has no off-ramp.
One possibility is that Ayatollah Khamenei and his family and inner-circle has looked at escaping to Moscow if Tehran falls. Hundreds of millions of dollars are already thought to have been ghosted out of the country as part of the regime’s fall back plans.
